Trump's Economic Agenda: Mercantilism and Data Dishonesty

President Trump has been known to nominate those with questionable credentials to important positions, but his recent moves do more than raise eyebrows.

Last Thursday, the president announced his intention to nominate Stephen Miran, a Project 2025 author and current head of the President’s Council of Economic Advisers, to fill the vacant seat on the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors after Governor Adriana Kugler submitted her resignation on August 1st.

The president also communicated on Monday of this week his plan to nominate the Heritage Foundation's chief economist, E.J. Antoni, to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Trump fired former BLS commissioner Erika McEntarfer after July’s weak jobs report.

Having worked as an economist at the Bureau, I was appalled to see Dr. McEntarfer terminated simply due to weak employment numbers. For sports fans, this would be analogous to Hal Steinbrenner firing the scoreboard operator merely because the Yankees lost. BLS employees have no control over the data that are reported to the agency. These officials are merely economic scorekeepers. Yes, there may be months when survey responses are low and, as a result, figures need to be revised once more data become available (as was the case this month). But the notion that someone at BLS could manipulate the monthly jobs report—as the president has implied—is ridiculous. There are simply too many safeguards that prevent that from happening.

Yet selecting Antoni to lead the Bureau suggests that this may be what the president would like to do. On August 1st, Antoni joined Steve Bannon’s “War Room” podcast to discuss the most recent jobs report. In the interview, Bannon expressed his dissatisfaction with the BLS and asked Antoni, “Have we put in our own person into BLS? Is a MAGA Republican, that President Trump knows and trusts, are they running the Bureau of Labor Statistics yet?” Antoni replied, “No, unfortunately, Steve, we still haven’t gotten there.”

Ten days after the Bannon interview, President Trump nominated Antoni for BLS commissioner. Expressing his support for Antoni, the president stated, "E.J. will ensure that the numbers released are HONEST and ACCURATE.”

While this development is alarming, more troubling is Trump’s choice for the Fed. Fed Chairman Powell’s term is set to expire next spring, and the president’s dislike of Powell is well-known. Since Fed Chairs must be selected from an existing member of the Board of Governors, it is likely that the president will try to fill the vacant seat on the Board with the person he intends to later nominate to chairman. This is what makes Miran such a disconcerting choice.

Miran is a mercantilist. He is an ardent supporter of the president’s tariffs, and has openly advocated for a decline in the dollar relative to foreign currencies. If confirmed, he would bring to the Fed a philosophy that would reduce the purchasing power of all Americans and potentially jeopardize the dollar’s standing as a global reserve currency. (Consumption makes up 70% of US GDP. A decline in consumer buying power is not exactly a sound strategy for long-term growth.)

Miran's mercantilist position also is incompatible with the country’s existing financing arrangements. Since the dollar’s preeminent standing (largely resultant to its strength) allows the Treasury to finance its deficits so affordably, a weakened dollar impinges upon the Treasury’s ability to keep federal borrowing costs low.

The point is, we do not need a Fed chairman who requires a primer in monetary theory. We also do not need a partisan policy wonk who is working to politicize the BLS. The Senate would be wise to reject these nominees and force the president appoint those who actually know what they are doing: those who understand the shortcomings of mercantilism, and those who will fight for data integrity.